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space and geomagnetic weather discussion.
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Published on Thursday September 14, 2017 at 1800
UTC
Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions
on Wednesday September 13, 2017-
Solar activity was low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was at a minor
geomagnetic storming level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers
were 74.2 75.1 73.8.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was
11.
In 2017 officially there were 56 days with a daily
sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for
approximately 2 more years, +/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring unusually
early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily
sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum
between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will
steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months
will see a 0, the big goose egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the
weakest in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that
solar cycle 25 would be virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type solar
minimum that occurred in the early 1800's.
Other than sunspot magnetic polarity it will
probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar
cycle 25 began.
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Officially there was 1 earth facing sun spot group
(SSG).
Directly earth aimed (geoeffective) sunspot group
(SSG) #12680 was located near N09E27 with a complex beta magnetic signature. It
was capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare and an isolated
moderate in size M class solar flare.
There was no unofficial and as of yet unnumbered
earth facing sunspot group. (SSG).
There was no small in size C class solar flare or
larger.
There was no directly earth aimed (geoeffective)
coronal mass ejection (CME).
There was no partially earth aimed (geoeffective)
coronal mass ejection (CME).
There was 1 directly earth aimed (geoeffective)
coronal mass ejection (CME) related high latitude energetic proton storm >10
MeV (10+0). The 24 hour period maximum energetic proton flux was at a background
level >10 MeV (10+0), peaking at S1 level.
The high latitude absorption via earths D layer is
called polar cap absorption.
The mid latitude absorption is caused by energetic
electrons and protons spiraling down earth’s magnetic field lines into the
equatorial ring current.
There was no earth aimed (geoeffective) solar
flare related x-ray day side solar fade out (SFO).
No earth aimed (geoeffective) collapsing magnetic
filament eruption occurred.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K
index (Kp) was at minor geomagnetic storming to quiet geomagnetic conditions of
5 3 3 2 1 1 1 0.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval Boulder, CO K
index was at active to quiet geomagnetic conditions of
4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1.
The K(p) geomagnetic indices
are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on
Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A
index (Ap) ranged between
56 and 2
which was at major geomagnetic storming to quiet
geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices
are-
0-7- quiet
8-15- unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401-
our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all
dead.
The 24 hour period maximum background x-ray flux
was at B1.21.
The 24 hour period maximum southward swing of the
vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic magnetic field was at
approximately -13 nT.
The larger the negative value the further
south-north that visible aurora can possibly be observed outside of the polar
regions.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum disturbance
storm time index (Dst) ranged
between
-26 and +9 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind
speed ranged between
629 and 367 km/s.
There
was 1 recurrent medium in size earth facing northern hemisphere coronal hole
(CH) #824 (#820).
Its
associated high speed solar (HSS) wind stream was attached to earths geomagnetic
field and impacting earths ionosphere in the form of minor (Kp-5) geomagnetic
storming conditions.
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GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF
PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed
without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as
described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave
propagation possible, something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are
better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200
or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for
routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting
mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than
7 for several days consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid
latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days
consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV
(10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1
for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM
alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a
(positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst
index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the
equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index
tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and
indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF
signals.
12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units
below zero and trending towards zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater
than 2 MeV (2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for
several days consecutively.
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Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data
from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities,
educational institutions and some private individuals, to produce my daily
solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion. This data is gathered and made
public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including
mine).
However the solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella,
W4HM.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute
this "not for profit" daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion, as
long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for
it.
